Michael Adams: Could It Happen Here?

[bibliogramma]

Michael Adams’ book, Could It Happen Here? Canada in the Age of Trump and Brexit focuses on the results of public opinion research and a variety of social and economic metrics in the attempt to determine whether a populist movement of the kind that swept Donald Trump into power could take root in Canada. Ironically, I started reading it during the Ontario election, and found that I had to take a break as, despite all of Adams’ citations of public opinion suggesting that Canadians are supportive of immigration, government intervention, social safety nets, gender equality, lower levels of income inequity, and all sorts of other nice-sounding things, the popularists under Doug Ford smirked and dog-whistled their way to an electoral victory.

So, even before I’d read to the end, and knew Adams’ final assessment, I had an answer to his question. Yes, it can, and it did. Writing in 2017, Adams was more hopeful: “Could Canadians suddenly find themselves seized by the rage-fueled politics of exclusion and enthralled by a tough-guy autocrat? I suppose anything is possible. But if we go beyond the fleeting politics of the day and look more closely at those underlying values, the answer becomes clear: we’ve had our flings with polarizing populists, but when the buzz wears off, we always seem to muddle our way back to the middle.”

So the question for both Michael Adams and myself now, is why, if Canadians hold such equaliarian values, comparatively speaking, did it happen anyway?

I have to state here, for those who don’t know this about me, that not only do I know the author, I used to work for him at the public opinion research company he founded, Environics. In fact, I worked as a research analyst in the public opinion division, and I’m very familiar with the kinds of research data he drew on, how it’s collected, analysed, tracked, interpreted. While I’ve been retired for a while and haven’t had access to the most recent data, I know where it comes from and the methods involved in conducting the research he draws on. So my thoughts here are the thoughts of a former insider, so to speak.

Of course, one thing that both Adams and I would say, and in fact he addresses this in the book, is that the outcome of this election is very much a consequence of the first-past-the-post electoral system that is still used in most of Canada at the provincial level, and in federal elections, and our parliamentary system. The truth is that only about a quarter of eligible voters favoured the Conservative platform, and among those who actually voted, 60 percent voted for candidates of other parties. Which really gives us the answer as to how it happened - conservative supporters were more likely to vote than supporters of other parties, and the anti-populist vote was split between centre and left, leaving the unified right to coast to a majority victory with minority support.

So in some ways, the electoral results doesn’t completely invalidate the conclusions Adams draws from the research. On most of the factors cited as differences between Canada and the US - acceptance of immigrants, trust in social and political institutions, rejection of authoritarianism, support for social equality - the differences aren’t absolute. While a majority of Canadians hold all these beliefs, there’s a minority of 20 to 30 percent that don’t - and these are more likely to be older Canadians, and older Canadians are also more likely to vote. And in this election, it’s that minority that’s taken the rest of us hostage.

I’m 63 myself, and I hope that this election was in part the last gasp of an older generation that is less likely to be comfortable with the social changes taking place, the increasing diversity, the movements that are bringing immigrants, people of colour, Indigenous people, queer and trans people, all kinds of marginalised people to the table. But the other question I have for Michael Adams and the research he draws on is this - what is the relative importance placed on these values by those who espouse them, and how did that play into the Ontario election?

When it comes to a choice, do Canadians put multiculturalism, gender equality, support for immigration, ahead of promises of personal financial comfort, lower taxes, cheaper goods and services? Are more privileged Canadians willing to give up some of their privilege to see the values they claim to hold put into practice, or are they just paying lip service to social equity?

I think it’s the answers to those questions that will tell us if this can happen here, again.

Comments

[emceeaich]

First-past-the-post in a multiparty system is a recipe for disaster, so why can't Canada (or at least Ontario) switch to another system?

[bibliogramma]

We’ve been talking about it both nationally and in various provinces for at least the past decade, but the political will is lacking and people don’t seem to understand the need for reforming the electoral system to make it more representative. There’s going to be a referendum in British Columbia this fall on whether to introduce a proportional representation system for provincial elections. If that passes, and the government there actually moves forward, that might encourage more jurisdictions to reform. As a supporter of a third party that would certainly benefit, I’m hoping it will come soon. But I’m not that optimistic.